E.U. Looks East With Increasing Anxiety

The New York Times


May 5, 2009

By STEPHEN CASTLE

BRUSSELS — Once seen as a means of drawing countries away from Russia’s sphere of influence, a European Union plan to strengthen its bond with six former Soviet republics now has a more urgent purpose: to stabilize a volatile region.

On Thursday, Prague will play host to a summit meeting designed to embrace the six states — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova — under a plan called the Eastern Partnership. The original goal was to present the 27-nation European Union bloc as an alternative to Moscow as a regional power center by offering greater engagement on economic and political issues.

But political instability and deteriorating economies in some of these states has alarmed powers in the West, especially Germany, and intensified concern that the East-West divide will only deepen if troubled countries fall back into alignment with Russia.

“There are new priorities on the agenda which were not so obvious last year,” said Nicu Popescu, a research fellow for the European Council on Foreign Relations, “including the need to stabilize these countries, which are moving from one crisis to another. The focus is less on structural adjustments or institution-building and more on crisis management.”

In a sign of how seriously Germany views the situation, its chancellor, Angela Merkel, has decided to attend the summit meeting. Her presence gives vital political heft to hopes that the E.U. can shape events in the region.

Neither Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, nor Britain’s prime minister, Gordon Brown, have yet confirmed their attendance and both are likely to send ministers rather than traveling to Prague.

Last week the German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, highlighted the deteriorating conditions in Ukraine, noting that “the economic situation is worsening on a daily basis.” There is, he added, a “blockade at the top of level of the government” and the deadlock is “heightened by tensions between Ukraine and Russia.”

Moldova is another country in turmoil. After riots last month, President Vladimir Voronin ordered mass arrests and accused Romania — an E.U. member — of trying to overthrow his government.

The organizers of the summit meeting have scheduled a discussion of the impact of the financial meltdown on Eastern Europe, said Jan Sliva, a spokesman for the Czech government.

But even the Czechs’ role as host has complicated the E.U.’s efforts to embrace its eastern neighbors. It was the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating E.U. presidency, that pushed the initiative, but the country’s credibility is undermined by the fact that its government has fallen, and its prime minister, Mirek Topolonek, will be chairing his last E.U. event before he loses his job.

The Eastern Partnership was conceived as a response to critics of the E.U.’s foreign policy who argue that the bloc devotes too much of its diplomacy and economic resources to areas of the globe where it has little clout, notably the Middle East. They say the E.U. has better prospects of exerting influence in a region on its borders that includes several nations, including Ukraine, that have ambitions to join the bloc.

Watching from the sidelines is a wary Russian government that has grown steadily more skeptical about the E.U.’s intentions. Last week its foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said he was concerned that the E.U. may be about to meddle in a region that Moscow considers its backyard.

As Russia’s opposition to the scheme has become more vocal, its close ally Belarus has become more cautious about the Eastern Partnership. Over the last nine months the E.U. made several efforts to engage with Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, Belarus’s president, despite his poor human rights record, and even lifted a ban against his obtaining a visa. But, in March, Mr. Lukashenko postponed a meeting with a senior E.U. official and he is unlikely to attend the summit meeting Thursday.

President Voronin of Moldova is not expected in Prague either.

Though nations like Belarus stand to gain from more favorable trade or visa policies, the Eastern Partnership offers little new to Ukraine, which is already negotiating closer economic and political ties with the E.U. The total budget for the partnership program is modest, €600 million, or about $800 million, and only €350 million of that is new cash.

Aside from being an anchor for the meeting, Ms. Merkel’s presence underlines Germany’s growing alarm at the deteriorating political situation on Europe’s eastern borders.

The rivalry in Ukraine between President Viktor A. Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko had a direct impact on the E.U. in January when it complicated a dispute between Moscow and Kiev that disrupted gas supplies to European countries.

Mr. Popescu, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that even if the E.U. scales down ambitions to dilute Moscow’s influence, it certainly wants to avoid a situation where Russia ends up exerting greater power in the region.

Despite Ukraine’s stated desire to join the E.U., it remains a divided country politically, with many voters in the East looking more toward Moscow than to the West.

“If Ukraine joins with Russia’s sphere of influence,” added Mr. Popescu, “we are also more likely to see a bipolar Europe rather than one trying to integrate with the EU.”

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